CALLAGHAN'S DECISION to funk an Ociober election is a reflection of British political realitles. The election was postponed for one basie reason: the fear that Labour would lose an autumn poll. This was the advice offered to the Prime Minister by the private pollsters hired by Transport House. The question which arises is how Labour got to the position where it couldn't defeat an openly reactionary Thatcher and whether its position will be any better in the spring or (If they can hold on that long) the autumn of 1979.
shape of the new electoral register nest February, but against that there are numerous other factors - factors which bourgeois politicians tend always to ignore. which has instituted savage cats in living standards. All this han been dome in the name of 'sacrifices" needed to keep the Tories out and ensure that Labour remains in power. Now -union leaders have loyally helped to police the cluss struggle Callaghan decides thar he couldn't win und there is to be no election after all.
there will be increasing resistunce from the rank and tile, who believe that one major fumetion of their trade union is precisely to defend and raise their living standards. next election takes place. He clearly intends to continue the consensas policies which endear him to 'moderute" Tories, the City of London and the International Monetary Fund. These will presumably be aimed to drive the Tories even further to the right and appear as the 'extremists" who wish to exacerbate the politicul situation.
ABSTENTIONS
traditional supporters working class.
othered to vote. unprecedented working class upsurge against the Torles in 1974, postpone the election is thus a confession of political failure.
been revealed in such a stark and cruel fashion.
mecessary for many of it Squire Callaghan are no longer needed for the time being.
Sharp budgetary the Midlands. along the line.
run-up and during the election Itself.
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Socialist Challenge 14 September 1978 Page 2 It is true that there are marginal advantages to be gained in the The fact is that Callaghas has presided over a Government after the trade So were the "sacrifices" in vuin or are more needed? Either way, Callaghan's gamble could explode in his face by the time the What this line of argument ignores is that many of Laboar's cannot he persuaded to vote, let alone canvass enthusiastically for a party whose sole argument is that the Tories would be worse but which itself does nothing for the Ir is abstentions und a shift to the nationalists in Scofland and Wales that poses a threat to Labour. The pattern wasshown clearly In 1970 when Labour lost because the tarnout was the lowest for 35 of former Labour supporters couldn't be And it is worth recalling that despite the popular vote gained by Labour that February was the lowest slace 1935 and its share of the total poll was the lowest since 1931.
In October 1974 its popular vote actually declined further. This was after the experiences of the Heath Government and the confrontation with the unions. Is it totally foolish then to speculate that another spell of a Labour governmens practising austerity policies will lose rather than gain support? Callaghan's decision to Four years of 'sacrifices" have not paved the way for a Latur victory. The lessons should be fully absorbed by the supporten of Tribune and their leaders who have also been toeing a similar line. The utter crisis of perspectives for left social democrucy has rarely The British ruling class, or the more influential sections of it, are now ready for a Tory goverament. Labour has done the dirty work social and economic poiscies to te Institutionalised by a set of bold Tory measures. The services of SHARP ATTACKS attacks on the working class and tax relaxations for the middle and upper classes are what capital meeds to boost the flagging morale of its own troops. This can best be provided by generals not too worried hy the mutinous spirit of the foot soldiers in Scotland, the North-east, Merseyside, Wales and So Callaghan will be lucky if he gets away with it for too hong. He might not want an election, but by postponing one at the last minute he has weakened his own standing in ruling class circles. From now on they will deterinine the best time to get rid of him. We cannot totally exclude the possibility of an election this winter.
In the meantime Callaghan will be doing his best to demoralise und hold back the working class still further. What this means for as is an even firmer fight to project our socialist alternative all Apart from solidarity with all those who will now prefer to strike ratber than to wait for the Squire to call an election, and with all those who implement the TUC line of opposing the 5 per cent wage norm, we will in addition he campaigning to have the maximum number of Socialist Unity cundidates to project our polities in the